Thanksgiving is approaching and the travel has begun. Many people are already hitting the roads, tracks and sky as we head to our Thanksgiving Day destinations. I took a look at the upper level winds for next week and it gives us a good clue what to expect during this time.
As you watch the video you will see the upper level pattern at 500 mb along with the thickness contours of the atmosphere. Basically look for waves or dips that will be moving to indicate storm systems. As you watch the movie you will notice our storm of this week heading east. Storm#1 approaches from the west with limited moisture, while storm #2 approaches form the Plains with more cold air and a better moisture source. This means the Tuesday/Wednesday storm will likely bring some rain or snow.
If you are traveling, always stay on top of the latest conditions before venturing out. Have a super weekend.
Have you ever wondered what it looks like in the back of the Weather Lab, behind all the computer monitors you see on television? If so, today is your lucky day! Without further ado, here you go:
Is it what you thought? Are you wondering whose cereal that is? It is Kaj’s. In fact, Kaj just put a refrigerator in the back of the Weather Lab for breakfast stuff, which is the big white thing at the bottom of the picture. The pink bag is makeup, not that we wear any.
One of my favorite activities is grilling. Not only meat items, but vegetables and pizza as well. If you haven’t tried grilled pizza, give it a shot – I think you’ll find it tasty. When I fire up the grill, I try to cook as much as possible at once so I can get the most out of the coals. Then I freeze it and use it as much as possible for lunches. The grilled flavor actually holds pretty nice.
Ok, I guess this is a weather blog, so I should probably get to the weather. Basically, for late November, this is a good grilling weekend, and just in time for the last home game for the Hawks. Temperatures will be in the 50s this upcoming weekend, and Saturday looks to be the warmest day. By Sunday, clouds will begin to increase, but temperatures should still make a run at the 50s.
Tailgaters, spatulas, tongs, and forks at the ready position!
In Eastern Iowa we have dealt with some rain falling from the past couple of days falling from the sky. It was a different story last night out west as a great ball of fire was seen and felt by many.
According to Spaceweather.com witnesses in Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho say the fireball “turned night into day” and issued shock waves that “shook the ground” when it exploded just after midnight MST.
Spaceweather.com also reports that although the fireball appeared during the Leonid meteor shower, it was not a Leonid. Infrasound recordings of the blast suggest a small asteroid hitting Earth’s atmosphere and exploding with an energy of 0.5 to 1 kiloton of TNT. Experts liken the event to the Park Forest fireball of 2003, which scattered dozens of meteorites across a suburb of Chicago. Meteorites are likely from this fireball as well.
When Weatherwise articles were still in The Gazette, I wrote about my time living in Louisiana from time to time. If you never read those and do not know much about me, my first job out of college before coming to KCRG-TV9 was in Lake Charles, LA at KPLC-TV, which was about 30 miles north of the Gulf Coast and 30 miles from Texas. In other words, I was closer to Houston than New Orleans. Having grown up in Iowa’s versatile weather, Louisiana’s weather was a big change.
Don’t worry, I won’t rehash all of my memories in this blog, that would be too long. For now, I will talk about wind.
Here in Iowa, obviously it can get pretty windy. In Louisiana, it was not real windy very often. Unless there was a tropical system offshore or actually moving through, the winds were pretty light most of the time, especially in the summer. To get a good breeze, there needs to be a tight pressure gradient present in the atmosphere. Typically strong high and low pressure systems are found near the jet stream, which is usually much farther north than Louisiana in the summer. So, in the summer, when it was over 90 degrees, which was most days, there was not much breeze to cool you off, unless you were standing right on the coast along the beach where there was a sea breeze (that’s another blog sometime). That’s when you had to find a cold beverage and some shade!
It seems like, from talking to folks, that the meteorology world is a little mysterious when it comes to schedules and working days. I can’t tell you how many times people ask what our working hours are and well…..those hours can get confusing.
First off, here’s the fair warning – if you are a person who needs to be home for every holiday, gets upset over working an extra 6 hours, or gets upset about having to work your weekend every now and again, then this job probably isn’t for you. The weather never stops, and neither do people needing it. That means not only do holidays need to be working days, but overnights as well – every night in fact, needs to be covered.
My particular schedule is a bit different than most that’s for sure, but once you get into a routine, it helps. I’m usually up at 2:00am on a Monday through Friday morning and arrive by 3am at KCRG. That means I have 2 hours to issue a forecast, make all the graphics of the day, and update all our multi-media platforms. Sometimes that 2 hours can be very easy, other days, very hard. The morning show starts at 5am and ends at 7am. My day is over at noon, right after the midday show.
It’s also kind of an on-call schedule as well. Let’s say you are sitting down to dinner, and a severe thunderstorm warning is issued. Guess what – dinner is off at that point, and you are coming into work, simple as that. Also, whether you are scheduled for evenings or mornings, you may get flip flopped sometimes, especially in the National Weather Service where rotating shifts are done.
The good news is, we all love our jobs here, and are dedicated to them so we’ll work these hours. However, we all make sure we have a good alarm clock.
I have been playing Christmas music for the past couple of weeks as the holidays are fast approaching. This means I am waiting for snow to fall and cover the ground so sleds can once again be used and snowmen can come to life. I always take a look at the extended models this time of the year in the hope I will see some snow.
Today I looked ahead and saw the forecast for December 3. The map below is from the GFS Model for 6am on December 3. The thick blue line is the 540 thickness line. Basically it is what we look for to determine whether we will see rain or snow. To the south of that line, from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic States, showers and thunderstorms are expected. North of the line, including Iowa, snow could fall and it will be cold and windy.
Snow lovers, can we count on snow for early December, based on this model? Unfortunately not, this pattern will evolve and change during the next 2 weeks. But we can always hope!
This year has been below average for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin. According to statistics from the National Hurricane Center from 1944 to 2005, the average number of named tropical systems per year is 10. Of those, 6 are historically hurricanes with 2 of them being major, which is Category 3 or higher.
With only a few days left to go this hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30, the number of named tropical systems so far is 8. Of those, 3 were hurricanes with 2 of them major.
So, the Atlantic Basin is 2 below average for named tropical systems, 5 below average for the number of hurricanes and right on course for the number of major hurricanes at 2.
Why fewer tropical systems? El Nino. El Nino is the when sea surface temperatures are above normal for the equatorial Pacific and this year, El Nino started showing up over the summer and looks to last through winter. El Nino affects the world’s weather in different ways and for tropical weather in the Atlantic Basin, that tends to mean fewer tropical systems because of faster-moving winds that tend to be present in the upper-level winds over the Carribean Sea and Tropical Atlantic Ocean. Those faster-moving winds tend to break up more systems that try to form.
We’ve been getting some calls to the weather lab these past few days with folks asking about how things are looking for Thanksgiving. While it’s still a tad over a week away, it does appear that our computer models are locking onto a general trend for that timeframe. The fine details will still need some fine-tuning, but overall, it does appear that there will be a large ridge of high pressure in the West, while the eastern half of the nation will be under the influence of low pressure.
With the jet stream diving straight out of Canada, we’ll have a big supply of cold air working into the Midwest. Some snow is possible around Thanksgiving, although the location and timing all depend on how quickly the low pressure moves out. At this time, it looks to be primarily a Great Lakes snow on Thanksgiving, but we’ll keep an eye on it.
Meteorology is much more than the common stereotype of standing on a green wall, throwing darts, and being laughed at when you’re wrong. In fact, the dropout rate for a typical Meteorology program at a university is about 50%. Why? It’s because of all that math.
The math requirements for Meteorology are very similar to those that an engineer would need. Calculus 1, 2, 3, differential equations, a year of calculus phyics, and some computer programming is required for Meteorology – and that’s just to get into the core courses. When you watch the weather on TV, if somebody is labeled a “Meteorologist”, that individual has indeed gone through the core courses that caused so many late nights. If that individual is labeled “Weathercaster”, they have not gone through those core courses, and do not have a degree in the field either.
Why all that math? Temperature, pressure, moisture, density, all that stuff goes into making a forecast. All those things are variable too, and will change over time (a calculus derivative). You should see the dynamic Meteorology book where we learn about low pressure tracks and why they move the way they do. It’s an equation that’s not too pretty!
All that math is to pursue a Bachelor of Science degree in Meteorology. More would be required to pursue a Masters or PhD.
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grilled pizza, give it a shot – I think you’ll find it tasty. When I fire up the grill, I try to cook as much as possible at once so I can get the most out of the coals. Then I freeze it and use it as much as possible for lunches. The grilled flavor actually holds pretty nice.
Don’t worry, I won’t rehash all of my memories in this blog, that would be too long. For now, I will talk about wind.
It seems like, from talking to folks, that the meteorology world is a little mysterious when it comes to schedules and working days. I can’t tell you how many times people ask what our working hours are and well…..those hours can get confusing.
So, the Atlantic Basin is 2 below average for named tropical systems, 5 below average for the number of hurricanes and right on course for the number of major hurricanes at 2.
laughed at when you’re wrong. In fact, the dropout rate for a typical Meteorology program at a university is about 50%. Why? It’s because of all that math.
